What will programmers have to know by 2040?

Interesting claim below.  Do we believe that being able to build a JIT compiler will be a critical threshold for programming in 2040?  Or will programming become so much a literacy, that there will be people who can just write grocery lists and letters to Grandma and there will be Shakespeares?  I’m predicting a broader spread, not a higher bar.

The FizzBuzz problem described below is pretty interesting, a modern day version of the Rainfall problem.  I will bet that the results claimed for FizzBuzz are true, but I haven’t seen any actual studies of it yet.

While that may be true today, what will matter far more in the future is the quality of programmers, not the quantity. Any programmer who can’t hack together a JIT compiler in 2040 will be as useless as a programmer who can’t solve FizzBuzz today.

via Neil Fraser: News: Programming TNG.